Real estate wealth tax pays twice as much as expected

The tax that replaced the ISF should bring in 1.9 billion euros in 2020, according to the annexes of the finance bill presented on Friday. This is double the forecast made when the reform was voted.

During the vote on the reform of the ISF, Bercy had counted on cautious forecasts due to a lack of information on the composition of taxpayers' assets.

The reform of the ISF will ultimately have cost less than expected in the state budget. According to the appendices of the Finance bill presented on Friday, Bercy has again revised upwards the revenue forecasts for the real estate wealth tax (IFI) which has replaced the solidarity tax on fortune (ISF) since 2018. The IFI should bring in 300 million euros more than expected, which would bring its return for 2019 to 1.8 billion euros. This dynamic should continue in 2020, since the forecast entered in the draft budget amounts to 1.9 billion euros.

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Overall, the revenue from this new tax refocused on real estate assets is twice the 850 million euros forecast when the reform was voted. The cost of this transformation would rather be around 2.3 billion euros instead of 3.2 billion euros anticipated in 2017.

Conservative forecasts

At the time, Bercy had counted on cautious forecasts due to a lack of information on the composition of the wealth of taxpayers, in particular on the part represented by real estate in it. The data published this summer by the budget rapporteur to the Assembly, the deputy Joël Giraud (LREM), shows that the taxable net assets went from 1.028 billion euros, before reform, to 300 billion euros once that only real estate assets were taxed.

These figures should find an echo with the evaluation committee of the reform of the taxation of capital. Led by the France Strategy think tank, this group of experts, formed after the mobilization of “yellow vests”, will deliver its first conclusions on Tuesday 1 October. Beyond the cost of the reform, the committee is invited to consider its macroeconomic effects, both on investment and employment, as well as its impact on the distribution of wealth.

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