INSEE gave this Thursday morning a first estimate of the brake on the activity of the coronavirus crisis. The French economy is running at only 65% of its production capacity and consumption is reduced by a third. The economic cost of containment will arise very quickly.
The brake application is impressive. The loss of economic activity between a normal week and this week, where the entire country is confined, is estimated by INSEE at 35%. Obviously, this estimate will change depending on the health situation and the measures taken to stem the spread of the coronavirus epidemic. The statistical institute does not make any forecast for the year but each month of confinement of the population represents a loss of 3 points on the annual GDP, if we assume that no loss of activity is made up. in the following quarters. However, the question of the form of the recovery remains unresolved. Still, for Julien Manceaux, economist at ING, the figures of INSEE are “An extraordinary light in the thick economic fog in which we must have the honesty to admit that we are all immersed”.